In the short term, importers pay for the cost of tariffs. Exporters who want to remain competitive in the market could lower their prices. But that doesn’t necessarily offset what importers pay; in the 2018-19 U.S.-China trade conflict, for example, export prices didn’t fall enough to overcome the added costs for importers, said Felix Tintelnot, an associate economics professor at Duke University, citing recent research.

This means that in the longer term, the costs added by tariffs are often passed on through the supply chain to consumers. In some cases, this takes time. Businesses can be reluctant to increase prices if they believe that consumers will interpret it as price-gouging, Christiano said.

Some companies have been eating the costs from tariffs, but a growing number including Procter & Gamble and Nike have in recent weeks said they plan to raise retail prices.